Sum of Friends.

Happy Dry January to those who celebrate.

One of my new favorite quotes I just heard for the first time (pardon me if I’m a bit behind) is “Show me your friends and I’ll show you your future” from Dan Peña.

I have already heard Naval Ravikant’s famous “5 Chimps Theory”, which more-or-less conveys the same concept, if perhaps a bit more scientifically.

The theory (originally claimed by primatologists) suggests that you can reliably predict the mood of a chimp by observing the 5 chimps they most closely associate with. Naval says the same applies to humans.

Essentially, you are the sum product of your 5 closest associates.

The beauty of course is that, unlike chimps, we have some general control over who’s in our troop. Your twenties and thirties is really the prime-time for cultivating those relationships, it’s when you have the most social mobility. Before then you’re pretty much stuck with your family and the people who happen to go to your school. By forty you are settled, likely with a family of your own.

So twenties and thirties are the time to think about this, and for me it’s something that has become gradually more apparent between about 23 and 27.

Looking at my own circle, I have some friends with maturity and ambition and charisma. Who have impressive hobbies or badass jobs. I also have friends my age without those things. Some still living with their parents. Some can’t commit and always have an excuse.

The conventional wisdom above would suggest that one should cut ties with any remotely negative connections and stay friends with only winners. But it isn’t that simple is it? Sometimes those ‘net-negative’ friends are family, sometimes they are people you’ve known for decades, some of the only people you can have those deep conversations with. Some may just be going through a local rough patch.

I think a better approach is to think of it like a garden. There is no need to rush out and dramatically cut ties with anyone or force friendship with others. Instead your social circle should be cultivated over time. Net positive relationships should be cultivated gradually, and the others will either come along too or fade into the background.

No the number isn’t really five, it may be 12 it may be 2. And not about surrounding yourself with identical twins and building an echo chamber.

The goal is really that your closest connections are 1) supportive, 2) ambitious, and 3) diverse, and 4) fun to be around, prioritized in. that. order.

Ultimately it’s about the sum of those connections. You might have support friends with no ambition, you may have diverse friends who are not supportive. Both are okay if the sum of them check all three boxes. Because overall we naturally adopt the habits, beliefs, and ambitions of those we spend time with, as a weighted sum.

So these days I challenge myself to think about this. Which people in my social circle should I strive to spend more time with this year? Those who lift me up and make me better? And who might I consider prioritizing less time with?

And perhaps equally importantly, think about your reciprocity here — are you the type of person who makes your friends better? Supports them, challenges them, enjoys your time together?

The question isn't just who you're becoming by association, but who others are becoming by associating with you.

Compound interest is real when it comes to relationships. Grow together, and choose your chimps wisely.

Cheers,
Ramsey