We are now basically halfway thru 2025. Which is crazy (it was just February??)

If you’ve read any of my blogs you’ve probably noticed that I love to do recaps and post-mortem’s of things that I’ve done. This time I thought it would be more fun to do the opposite and make some predictions.

Predictions are harder (obviously). Most people are bad at them; and as such many of us avoid making them entirely for fear of embarrassment.

Often we’re overly timid and pessimistic in our predictions. A favorite quote from the famous economist Paul Samuelson sums it up perfectly “Economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions.”

So I figured it was time I put my reputation on the line, squint my eyes a bit and try to look out beyond the horizon into what my world might look like by the end of 2025.

By doign this you really challenge your assumptions about the world. You force yourself to think critically, and accept the potential of being wrong. I’d encourage anyone to try it.

Some of these are things that are top of mind, others are more fun topics I found browsing the Kalshi predictions market place.

12 Predictions for the Rest of 2025

Here are some things that I think will happen 2nd half of this year (before year’s end)

Post-revenue for Babbl Labs - I predict my startup will make our first dollar from our first client in the next 45 days. We officially began working on Babbl Labs 6 months ago, signed our first trial agreement with a major hedge fund in March, and are well-positioned to convert our first prospective to actively-licensing client very soon.

Close $500K pre-seed round - I also imagine we will close our $500K pre-seed funding round within the next 60 days. We have already closed more than half, and are in due diligence with a few investors currently. Now just need to close it up!

My sand volleyball team goes 6-2 - After a 1-1 start I think we we’ll bounce back stronger than ever. The weather is only getting nicer, our serves are getting sweeter, and the team chemistry is bubbling. We will lose this week (4th of July everyone is out of town) then win out.

US is NOT in ground war with Iran - Tensions between the US and Iran are obviously high right now (have been high for long, but relatively higher now). There is talk of a US-Iran war, I don’t think there’s any way the US risks a ground war with Iran between now and January

Zelensky & Putin meet before January - Kalshi puts the odds of this happening at 25%. I think they are higher. Particularly with risk of action continuing in the Middle East, I imagine the US has a strong incentive to broker discussions here sooner than later.

Top AI model is Gemini - this may not be a hot take, but it just seems Alphabet’s deep resources will continue to compound. Gemini has made incredible progress against the other models (which admittedly had a head and shoulders lead a year ago).

Apple acquires Anthropic - I legitmately fear that Apple is dying, they are desparate for a way to incorporate AI into their hardware. I don’t see how they manage to build leading-edge artificial intelligence capabilities in house. Anthropic on the other hand has great AI but horrible UX and will die if not aqcuired. A partnership (or better, acquisition) made in heaven.

World series winner: Detroit Tigers - maybe a basic pick, but needed to put some baseball in here. Tarik Skubal is an absolute beast. Someone needs to stop the Tigers (picking them because I don’t want to root for the Dodgers or Yankees, and Cubs dont have a shot)

US is NOT in a recession before EOY - today the S&P hit another high, months after a trade war with China broke out. The Trump administration is doing everything they can to prop up the market, and it seems to be buoying the economy a bit somehow. AI efficiencies will continue to enhance the workforce, Fed will even cut rates.

2025 will be hottest year on record AGAIN - this is a softball; hard to bet against this the way things have been going (sidebar, my wife bought a snowmobile for the first time ever 2 years ago; but there hasn’t been enough snow in MN to ride it the past few years). It will keep getting hotter

Bitcoin hits $150K - I’ve seen this story play out far too many times. Maybe a hedge against my ‘no recession’ prediction earlier? Sure. But BTC has been hovering around $100K for far too long for us to not see some more major volatility. Either that or there has been a material change in how Bitcoin moves (which I dont think is the case).

MN Vikings go 12-5 - My Minnesota Vikings will lose a few more games this year than they did last year, but they will still be elite (even in an absolutely stacked NFC North). JJ McCarthy will be the real deal, he will not get injured, they will call him the next Joe Burrow.

So there you have it.

Maybe next time I do this we can add some stakes; I could post some actual Kalshi prediction bets to go along with it.

For now I think making 12 bets publicly like this for everyone to look back on in 6 months and shame me is plenty enough.

Which ones do you think I’m wrong on??